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Why are mock drafts dangerous? . . .
Because most media mock drafts are done based on team needs.
For instance, most mock drafts have the Jets picking a wide receiver like CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy or an offensive tackle like Jedrick Wills or Mekhi Becton.
Why?
Because the perception is those are the Jets’ two biggest needs – wide receiver and offensive tackle. The tackle could end up being a right tackle, since the Jets signed left tackle George Fant. Now it’s possible the Jets could pick a left tackle, and move Fant to right tackle, but honestly, Fant is a lot more comfortable at left tackle, and has the feet and athleticism to handle that difficult job. and if they pick Wills or Becton, there are scouts who feel both fit in best at right tackle.
But I digress.
Picking for need is a big, big mistake. Historically, the best way to draft is stick to your value board that you spend MONTHS setting up. They set-up the board in order of talent based on the particular team’s grading system, regardless of position.
I know a lot of fans don’t like hearing this, but the best way to draft is sticking to the value board.
It’s never a good idea to base you draft on need.
Why? Because if a GM picks for need too much, if could end up costing him in his job. Just ask former New York Giants GM Jerry Reese.
The Giants reached for need two years in a row, selecting “left tackle” Ereck Flowers ninth overall in the 2015 draft, and then cornerback Eli Apple, 10th overall in 2016. Neither player is still with the Giants, and neither is the GM who reached for them. Flowers has reinvented himself into solid guard, but the Giants reached for him to play left tackle, because they desperately needed one, but he didn’t have the skill set for the position. Apple isn’t necessarily a bad corner, but was picked too high.
The Jets former GM was guilty of a major reach for need in 2016 draft, selecting linebacker Darron Lee 20th overall. They felt they needed a coverage linebacker, and reached for Lee, and it didn’t work out. He wasn’t as good as advertised in coverage, and was a liability against the run because he struggled shedding blocks due to be very undersized. And the former GM and coach insisted on playing starting him despite his struggles and this contributed to losses due to many big runs right at him
The Chicago Bears felt they needed a QB, so they reached for Mitch Trubisky, who clearly isn’t a first-round talent, Not only did they reach for Trubisky, but traded up for him.
So the point is simple, Douglas needs to stick his board no matter what, and he knows that. Because he knows reaching for need is a recipe for disaster.
If DT Derrick Browns slips to the Jets, they should pick him.
You might say, “Why would they pick another defensive tackle?”
Because if he’s the best player on your board, regardless of position, you pick him. That is the best way to handle the draft.
But hey it’s quite possible that need meets value, and the best player available at 11 is a wide receiver or offensive tackle. That is drafting utopia.
However, be wary of mock drafts. They are usually based on team need, and you should never draft for need.
STICK TO THE VALUE BOARD!
April 7, 2020
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