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Some say the decisions are tough.
They should be, but they are not.
Talking about the cutdown to 53.
Because let’s be honest, most decisions are made before camp even starts.
With most NFL teams, aside from teams in the first year of a total rebuild. we are probably looking at about 2-3 roster spots up for grabs before camps start.
And what happens on the field, in camp and preseason games, really doesn’t have a huge impact.
They might impact who makes the practice squad, but most of the regular roster is decided before camps start.
In the NFL, there is a lot of confirmation bias and self-fulfilling prophecies.
And this isn’t just a Jets thing, but most of the league.
So don’t look at this piece as an attack on the Jets, it’s an attack on most teams and the process.
People who have read me over the years have heard me rant about this for many years.
And are probably thinking “Dude, stop howling at the moon.”
Don’t get the wrong idea, I think Joe Douglas is a terrific GM, and has assembled a really good roster. Has Douglas had some misses, like at QB and left tackle? Yes. But what GM doesn’t have misses? According to Bill Polian, the hit rate on draft picks is around 56 percent. Not just first-round picks, but overall. Scouting college quarterbacks, and whether they can succeed on the next level, is extremely complicated. There are more misses than hits at that position. So Douglas has a lot of company missing on a first-round QB.
But Thursday’s practice made me realize, again, how most decisions are made before camp starts.
Thursday’s practice was interesting because it was the last of camp, but it was also kind of preparation for the Giants’ preseason. Not necessarily installing a game plan, because teams do very little game planning for the preseason games, but you saw backups going against backups the whole practice, and starters were on the sidelines, in baseball hats, not participating.
But here is the part that kind of opened my eyes.
It’s not seeing Aaron Rodgers, Tyron Smith, Quinnen Williams and other obvious key starters on the sidelines in baseball camps, but seeing guys like linebacker Jamien Sherwood, nickel back Brandin Echols, backup safety Ashtyn Davis, defensive end Michael Clemons and reserve offensive lineman Wes Schweitzer with baseball caps.
Sherwood is okay, but is he better than Chazz Surratt? Not from what I have seen in games and practices. Surratt is playing in this game. I’m not going to pretend to be a secondary coach, but Echols seemed to have an up-and-down summer. Is he a baseball cap guy?
Clemons is probably not a baseball cap guy at this point. He gets into too many fights, and must do a better job of setting the edge. Who is more valuable based on what we saw this summer, edge-rusher Takk McKinley, who had a 70-80 percent win rate as a rusher in camp, or Clemons, who struggles getting off blocks? McKinley is playing in the Giants game.
So, once again, most decisions were made before camp started. Most of these guys are competing for practice squad spots, no matter what they do in the summer.
Just like with most other teams around the league. This is far from just a Jets thing.
It is what it is.
But with all this being said, I think the Jets will be very good as long as #8 stays healthy.
Thanks for letting me get this off my chest.
August 23, 2024
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