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Projecting college quarterbacks to the NFL level is nearly impossible.
So it’s hard to be too critical of the Jets moving on from Zach Wilson.
Joe Douglas said last week they have allowed Wilson to pursue a trade with another team.
The Jets picked Wilson second overall in the 2020 draft, and they are moving on after three seasons.
That is far from ideal, but the same thing happened with Sam Darnold picked third overall in the 2018 draft.
But I refuse to be too critical of the Jets in either case.
The position is absolutely impossible to scout because you don’t know if they can read NFL defenses, until they have to . . . read NFL defenses.
You don’t know if they can process what they are seeing across the line in the NFL, until, they have to . . . process what they are seeing across the line in the NFL.
“‘The bottom line is I want to know how quickly they can process information,” said former NFL QB Kurt Warner, now an NFL analyst. “At the end of the day, that is what I believe it’s all about. No matter how talented you are, can you see it, can you process it? Can you make the proper decisions in doing that? You get four or five seconds, that is all you get to process all the information the NFL will throw at you with the best athletes in the world. That’s what I want to know. That to me is why I’m not a big draft guy (when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks).”
If Warner can’t figure out if college guys can process on the NFL level, how can anybody?
He played on the highest level and made the Hall-of-Fame. In his new life as an NFL analyst at NFL Network and with Westwood One, he’s a film junky. Few watch more film than this guy. If he can’t figure out, how can Mike Maccagnan (Darnold) or Joe Douglas (Wilson)?
But they have plenty of company.
Kyle Shanahan traded up for Trey Lance in the 2021 first, and he’s not even with the 49ers anymore.
Why did Aaron Rodgers slip to the 24th pick of the first round, and is now a first-ballot lock for the Hall-of-Fame?
Warner says aside from trying to figure out whether they can process, another thing that makes it near impossible to know if college QBs will be successful in the NFL is this factor:
“Every one of these guys has to get better in the NFL,” Warner said on WEEI in Boston. “Nothing is going to be able to stand pat with what we see in film in college and be great at the NFL level. It’s not going to happen. Some guys were great college players, but never got better and disappeared in the NFL.
“It’s not apples to apples in what we’re looking at, but the bottom line is who’s got the ability to get better, who’s got the ability to improve incrementally every year and improve their craft against the best in the world and that is a complete unknown. N matter what anybody tells you – ‘I know that guy is going to be good’ – no you didn’t know that because none of us know how these guys are going to move forward.”
I’m not making excuses for the Jets on missing with Darnold and Wilson, just pointing out they have plenty of company.
And unfortunately, the company they have will probably grow after this year’s draft, where some have six QBs going in the first round. Good luck with that!
March 6, 2023
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